Different Groups, Similar Solutions?

Finding 5: Four unique groups emerged during the analysis based on their knowledge and beliefs. Yet there is an opportunity to build consensus on the energy problem.

Obviously, the public is not one homogeneous group, clumped together at the same place at the same time on the learning curve. People come to this issue with different levels of concern and knowledge. Some people have spent more time thinking about these issues than others, while others resist dealing with it at all. When it comes to moving public debate forward, however, it’s critical to know what motivates different segments of the public. In particular, it’s important to know what the values are that motivate people.

For the Energy Learning Curve™, we conducted a “cluster analysis,” examining the data in terms of how people grouped naturally based on knowledge and beliefs. We believe this is even more significant than the traditional separations by education, race or income, although the segments often coalesced along demographic lines.

On energy, we found the public divided into four groups: the Disengaged (19 percent), the Climate Change Doubters (17 percent), the Anxious (40 percent) and the Greens (24 percent)

Each of the four groups has a distinctive set of values, beliefs or concerns that shape how they approach the energy problem. The key point here is that if leaders are trying to build public support for an energy policy, understanding the public’s motivations is critical. In addition, what motivates one group might leave another cold or even repel them. The environmental arguments that resonate with the Greens, for example, would turn off the Doubters. But concerns about price and oil dependence resonate with both.

Different prisms, same conclusion

One of the most intriguing findings in the research, in fact, is that so many people come to the same conclusions from different starting points and unique prisms. Both the Anxious and the Greens support alternative energy, but for entirely different reasons. As you’ll see below, no one group represents a majority in this analysis. Change requires knitting people with different concerns together, and for that, it’s fundamental to understand how people can see a problem through different lenses but still end up at the same place. There’s clearly an opportunity to build consensus here, which is critical when working towards solutions to our energy problems.

The Disengaged (19 percent of the public)

This group isn’t connected to the energy issue at all. They don’t know very much about the problem, but then again they’re not that worried about it either. Not only do they rate poorly on the knowledge questions in the survey, but they have higher “don’t know” responses. In fact, their “don’t knows” are usually in the double digits, in some cases reaching as high as over 4 in 10. Twenty-two percent, for example, have no view about the existence or causes of global warming. Even so, majorities in this group express the prevalent views on many items—for instance, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) think that oil prices will go up because of decreasing supply. However, since the number of those answering “don’t know” is as high as 19 percent, the firmness of this group’s views is suspect. Compared with the other groups, the Disengaged are second only to the Climate Change Doubters in their lack of worry about all aspects of the energy issue.

Majorities of this group tend to favor the same proposals as the rest of the public, although generally with less enthusiasm. They are less willing than other groups to pay higher taxes for the development of alternative energy sources or to consider making sacrifices to reduce the effects of global warming, perhaps because of their low level of knowledge on this subject

Defining characteristics:

• 19 percent of the public
• Only 14 percent worry “a lot” about global warming
• Only 18 percent worry “a lot” that the U.S. economy is too dependent on foreign oil
• Zero percent of this group knows how much of the world’s oil is in the United States
• 40 percent don’t know what share of U.S. energy use comes from renewable

Demographics:

• More than one-quarter is over the age of 65
• Mostly women
• Nearly evenly split in party affiliation: 24 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 30 percent Independent/other party
• Mostly lower income

Climate Change Doubters (17 percent of the public)

This group is equally or more knowledgeable about some energy issues than the other groups, but they reject the idea of global warming. That makes for a fundamental difference in attitudes and solutions.
Their energy approach favors drilling for oil and building more nuclear power plants. They’re dramatically more likely to favor nuclear power, with 50 percent who “strongly favor” building more nuclear plants, more than double any other group. Eight out of ten would choose expanding exploration, mining and drilling over energy conservation and regulation. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) say drilling offshore and in Alaska would eliminate the need to import oil.

This group is more conservative politically, and that comes through in their views on solutions. When asked to choose between protecting the environment and economic growth, the Doubters choose growth by an overwhelming 80 percent. They oppose any measure that might increase taxes or direct costs to the consumer.

The Doubters are more divided on whether to invest in more oil, coal and gas (48 percent) versus alternatives like solar and wind power (39 percent), but even that sets them apart — all the other groups favor the alternatives by three-quarters or more.

On some knowledge issues they are well- informed, but not others. They are more likely than other groups, except the Greens, to know that people in Japan and Europe pay a different amount for gas than people in the United States and that most of the oil imported to the United States does not come from the Middle East. But they are less likely than all the other groups to recognize that the price of oil will go up because of supply and demand and most likely to believe that 25 percent or more of the world’s oil is in the United States.

When it comes to worrying “a lot,” the Doubters tend to do so less, and, unsurprisingly, none are very concerned about global warming. With very few exceptions, they are both least likely to have modified their behavior in the direction of conservation and least willing to change their behavior in the future than others. For example, they’re the least likely to say they’ve cut back significantly on their driving (49 percent) or bought a household appliance based on energy ratings (17 percent).

Defining characteristics:

• 17 percent of the public
• 90 percent does not worry about global warming at all
• 90 percent believes either that global warming is just a theory, or that global warming is a fact but that it’s mostly caused by natural changes; only 2 percent think global warming is caused by human activity
• 79 percent would accept a nuclear plant in their neighborhood
• 89 percent favor reducing restrictions on drilling for oil in Alaska and U.S. waters

Demographics:

• More likely to be male
• More likely to be conservative and Republican
• Greater percentage college educated than the general public

The Anxious (40 percent of the public)

This group may not have the highest knowledge levels in our survey, but they know enough to be worried. Almost all of this group worries “a lot” about the cost of energy (91 percent), and worry is a strong characteristic for them across the board. They report higher levels of worry than the other groups on scarcity and on increased worldwide demand for oil. Global warming is a lesser concern, but even here more say they worry “a lot” (54 percent) than even the Greens (31 percent). Overall, this group is less knowledgeable in most areas when compared with the Climate Change Doubters and the Greens, but they are more knowledgeable than the Disengaged.

Perhaps because of their concerns about price, they are more supportive of a range of energy proposals designed to stretch resources and develop alternative fuel sources. They’re the most likely group to favor increased ethanol production (75 percent), and they “strongly” favor conservation and energy regulation over exploration and drilling. They’re also the most likely group to believe the president can do “a lot” about the price of gas. Even though the price of energy is their number one worry, 54 percent are at least “somewhat” willing to pay more taxes to fund the development of alternative energy sources.

They are the most optimistic that alternative energy can be developed in the near future — 85 percent believe that with heavy investment, alternative energy could be a major part of our energy consumption in 10 years or less.

Defining characteristics:

• 40 percent of the public
• 91 percent worry “a lot” about increases in the cost of gas and fuel
• 74 percent believe oil prices will rise due to scarcity
• 69 percent believe that global warming is a proven fact and due to human activity

Demographics:

• Less likely to be employed
• More likely to be Democrat (but less likely to call themselves liberal)
• Less educated than the general public (21 percent did not complete high school)
• Lower income
• More likely to be under 35

The Greens (24 percent of the public)

This group is the most knowledgeable about energy and rarely gives “don’t know” answers to survey questions. This is the only group in the survey that said that drilling offshore in Alaska would not eliminate our need for foreign oil (79 percent, compared with 43 percent overall).

The Greens also worry about all the elements of the energy problem, although their worry is less strong than some of the other groups. For instance, next to the Anxious group, they are the most concerned about the United States’ dependence on foreign oil and on global warming. They also engage in many energy-saving behaviors. They favor most energy proposals, except for coastal and Alaskan drilling, and while they’re open to nuclear power, their support is much more lukewarm than the Doubters. Seven in ten Greens say they would favor building more nuclear plants, but only 19 percent say they “strongly” favor this idea. By contrast, 87 percent of the Doubters favor nuclear power, and 50 percent “strongly” favor it.

Just over 9 in 10 Greens, more than any other group, say that we still need to find alternative sources of energy even if gas prices stay low, and 77 percent believe this “strongly.” They are the most willing (72 percent) to pay higher taxes to fund the development of alternative energy sources.

This group “strongly” favors energy conservation over exploration and believes that sacrifices will be required to solve the energy problem.

Defining characteristics:

• 24 percent of the public
• 79 percent say that drilling offshore or in Alaska will not eliminate the need to import foreign oil
• 86 percent are willing to pay more for renewable energy
• 91 percent believe that we need to find alternative sources of energy even if gas prices fall
• 65 percent believe that global warming is a proven fact and due to human activity

Demographics:

• Average distribution by party, but are most likely to be moderate
• Nearly half (48 percent) make $75,000 or more
• More likely to be better educated (one-quarter have post-graduate degrees)